Living in India, surrounded by a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, one cannot help but notice a string of striking coincidences unfolding in our neighborhood. These events in South and Southeast Asia seem to interconnect, revealing a larger pattern beneath the surface, almost like moves on a chessboard played by two giants—the Dragon and the Eagle.
First, consider Afghanistan. The Taliban forcefully took over, bringing down the pro-American government of Ashraf Ghani. In Pakistan, Imran Khan, a leader viewed as friendly to China, was removed from power and arrested amid political turmoil. That same year, the Sri Lankan government, which had strong ties with China, also fell under immense pressure of economic and political crisis.In India, we have lately been hearing accusations of voter fraud and electoral irregularities—a rhetoric coincidentally matching what led to the downfall of Myanmar’s democratic government in 2021. That military coup in Myanmar was also justified by claims of election fraud. These repeated patterns are hard to dismiss as mere coincidence.The list of coincidences only grows. Bangladesh, with a government aligned more closely to India and the West, saw a significant regime change. And just recently in Nepal, the pro-Chinese government collapsed, following violent protests and political upheaval.
This cascade of political shifts hints at retaliatory moves and strategic repositioning in the region.This is not about speculation; it is about observing clear and undeniable patterns within South Asia. The region has become a complex chessboard for the Dragon—China—and the Eagle—the United States. For instance, after India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the U.S. notably reappeared on the diplomatic scene with renewed interest. Soon after, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly praised Narendra Modi as his friend, signaling warming ties.
Amid these external maneuvers, Nepal’s government change is particularly significant. The current upheaval, stemming from anti-corruption protests and a crisis catalyzed by a ban on social media platforms, has paved the way for a probable pro-India regime replacing the pro-China government. The army’s role in stabilizing the situation, the prime minister’s resignation under pressure, and escalating popular unrest illustrate the scale of change underway.These shifts reflect a larger regional realignment where ideological, economic, and strategic influences are in contest. The “coincidences” show how deeply interconnected these nations are, caught in a larger game of geopolitical interests.
For Indians watching from close quarters, it is a vivid reminder of how their neighborhood is fluid and fiercely contested. These events underscore the fragile nature of alliances and the persistent tug-of-war between global powers. The evolving scenario invites cautious optimism amid uncertainty, along with the realization that the subcontinent’s destiny is part of a broader power play with long-reaching consequences.
